US Stocks Likely To Open Higher Ahead Of February's Inflation Print: Expert Says Odds Of A Full-Blown Bear Market Remain 'Quite Slim'

U.S. stock futures were up on Wednesday after a volatile session on Tuesday. Futures of all four benchmark indices advanced in premarket trading.

Investors will keep an eye on pivotal February inflation data as stagflation worries have been weighing on Wall Street. Economists polled by TradingEconomics predict a shift in inflation trends, with annual headline inflation expected to drop to 2.9% in February, breaking four months of increases. Monthly price growth is also forecast to slow, as is core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs.

On Tuesday afternoon, President Donald Trump reversed his decision to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, just hours after announcing the hike. The sudden shift, which unsettled financial markets, came after a Canadian official withdrew plans for a 25% surcharge on electricity.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.27%, while the two-year yield was at 3.94%. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 97% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the March meeting.

Futures	Change (+/-)
Nasdaq 100	0.71%
S&P 500	0.58%
Dow Jones	0.41%
Russell 2000	0.63%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Wednesday. The SPY was up 0.72% to $559.92, and the QQQ also advanced 0.84% to $475.54, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From The Last Session

The U.S. stock market closed lower on Tuesday after a volatile session. All sectors declined in trade. Industrials, consumer staples, health care and real estate sectors fell over 1%.

On the economic front, small business optimism fell in February, with the NFIB’s index dropping to 100.7. Uncertainty surged to near-record levels. Additionally, the labor market was strong in January, with rising openings. JOLTS report showed layoffs declining for a fourth straight month to the lowest level since last June.

The S&P 500 index neared correction zone as of Tuesday’s close, it was 9.36% lower from the previous high of 6,147.43 to 5,572.07 points. Whereas, Nasdaq 100 was 12.80% lower from its 52-week high.

The Dow Jones closed 478 points or 1.14% lower at 41,433.48 on Tuesday, down 8.08% from its previous high.

Index	Performance (+/-)	Value
Nasdaq Composite	-0.18%	17,436.10
S&P 500	-0.76%	5,572.07
Dow Jones	-1.14%	41,433.48
Russell 2000	0.22%	2,023.59

Insights From Analysts

Ryan Detrick, the chief market strategist at Carson Research, highlighted in his note ‘March Madness,’ that the seasonally the end of February and beginning of March are bound to see weakness.

However, he acknowledged that a correction was at hand, adding, “We do not expect things to get much worse and the odds of a full-blown bear market remain quite slim. As uncomfortable as this recent volatility feels, know that it is the toll we must pay to invest.”

According to Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research, investors were worried about the adverse macroeconomic consequences of all this geopolitical turmoil. “The uncertainty associated with rapid-fire tariff announcements from the White House could weigh on the economy,” he said.

As Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports take effect, the European Union announced on Wednesday that it would retaliate with levies of 26 billion euros or $28.33 billion on the U.S. goods starting in April in response to the duties.

Highlighting this, economist Mohamed El-Erian hinted at the volatility caused by negotiations between Canada on Tuesday, which will likely translate as a cause of the tensions between the U.S. and EU on Wednesday.

Yesterday's tariff focus was mainly on the heightened tensions between Canada and US; today, the focus shifts to the EU-US tit-for-tat.

(Photo from Bloomberg.)#economy #trade #tariffs pic.twitter.com/KeaknzVr5S

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) March 12, 2025

Whereas, CNBC’s Jim Cramer quipped that if the President spoke softly, a decent inflation print would uplift the market.

a decent CPI and we could have a good run IF President Trump decides to speak softly and carry a big stick

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) March 12, 2025

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will keep on Wednesday:

• February’s core and headline consumer price index data will be out by 8:30 a.m., ET.

• Monthly U.S. federal budget data for February will be announced at 2:00 p.m., ET.

Stocks In Focus:

• E W Scripps Co. (NASDAQ:SSP) surged 37.76% in premarket on Wednesday after it refinanced over $1.3 billion in term loans, secured a new $450 million accounts receivable facility, and a $208 million revolving credit line due 2027.

• Innventure Inc. (NASDAQ:INV) zoomed 32.62% secured a three-year white-label agreement with a major thermal management company and launched a new 250kW multi-rack liquid cooling system.

• Stitch Fix Inc. (NASDAQ:SFIX) jumped 18.68% after reporting the fourth quarter revenue of $312.1 million, exceeding expectations, with strong next-quarter guidance of $313.5 million.

• StandardAero Inc. (NYSE:SARO) dropped 15.87% after reporting a $0.04 loss per share, missing estimates by $0.20, but beat revenue expectations with $1.41 billion, up 21.8% year-on-year.

• Starbox Group Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ:STBX) plunged 19.45% after receiving a Nasdaq non-compliance notice for failing to maintain a $1.00 minimum bid price, with trading suspension set for March 18, 2025.

• Smith Micro Software Inc. (NASDAQ:SMSI) slumped 17.05% after reporting a $0.11 per share adjusted loss. This follows a previous quarter where their $0.30 loss beat estimates by 3.23%.

Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.68% to hover around $66.70 per barrel.

The gold spot index was up by 0.15% to $2,920.02 per ounce. Its last record high was at $2,956.37 per ounce. The Dollar Index was up 0.07% at the 103.487 level.

Asian markets closed mostly lower on Tuesday except Japan's Nikkei 225, and South Korea's Kospi index. Australia's ASX 200, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, India's S&P BSE Sensex, and China's CSI 300 index declined. European markets were mostly higher in trade.

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