US Stocks Likely To Open Higher As Wall Street Watches TruTariff Talks: 'March, April, May Tend To Be Solid Months In Post-Election Years,' Says Expert

U.S. stock futures rose on Monday following Friday’s advances. Futures of all fourth benchmark indices rose in premarket trading.

Investor anxiety over tariffs loomed as the March 4 deadline for tariff imposition on Mexico and Canada neared. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Fox News on Sunday that President Donald Trump would decide if the government will stick to its plan to levy 25%.

Also, China will be charged an additional 10% tariff on Tuesday, as highlighted by Trump in his Truth Social post. Furthermore, reports suggested that Mexico may agree to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to avoid the duties threatened by Trump.

Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO), Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST), Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT), Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) and Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) will report earnings this week.

Treasury yields slipped on Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.25%, while the two-year yield was at 4.03%. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 95% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the March meeting.

Futures	Change (+/-)
Nasdaq 100	0.35%
S&P 500	0.21%
Dow Jones	0.12%
Russell 2000	0.62%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Monday. SPY was up 0.26% to $595.74, and QQQ advanced 0.44% to $510.34, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From The Last Session

Information technology, financial, and consumer discretionary sectors led the charge as U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday. Ultimately, all sectors within the S&P 500 finished the day with gains.

The tech sector, in particular, rebounded strongly from Thursday’s losses, with Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) surging 4% and Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) climbing 3.9%.

Further bolstering investor sentiment was the release of PCE data, which showed the price index declining for the first time in four months. This data reinforced expectations, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, for approximately two quarter-point cuts to the Fed funds rate in 2025 after June.

The Dow Jones closed 601 points or 1.39% higher at 43,840.91 on Friday. The S&P 500 rose 1.59% to 5,954.50, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.63% to 18,847.28. The small-cap gauge Russell 200 advanced 1.09% to 2,163.07.

Index	Performance (+/-)	Value
Nasdaq Composite	1.63%	18,847.28
S&P 500	1.59%	5,954.50
Dow Jones	1.39%	43,840.91
Russell 2000	1.09%	2,163.07

Insights From Analysts

Ahead of the first trading day in the new month of March, Ryan Detrick, the chief market strategist at Carson Research, highlighted that this is “a solid month overall” but the bulls start to show up only after mid-month.

March is a solid month overall, but it is the Ides of March when the🐂s tend to show up. pic.twitter.com/DKOJ71mvE4

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 2, 2025

Mapping the historical data 1950 onwards, Detrick added that March, April, and May are usually solid months in post-election years.

March/April/May tend to be solid months in a post-election years. The weak February played out, time for better times? I think so. pic.twitter.com/ckQ9WdIyP2

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 2, 2025

He further highlighted that every fifth year or the years ending with ‘5,’ tend to be quite strong, except 2015 during which S&P 500 was lower by less than 1%.

Years that end in "5" tend to be quite strong, with only 2015 lower and that was by less than 1%.

Some of those other years were very strong (1955, 1975, 1985, and 1995). pic.twitter.com/PIJVOViUzT

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 3, 2025

Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates suggests that the S&P 500, currently riding a “very strong rally,” is due for a correction towards its rising 200-day moving average, which stood at 5701.50 as of last Friday.

According to Navellier, the index has yet to test this key moving average which did not happen in 2024, making a pullback increasingly likely. He says that the timing of this correction, whether in February or March, hinges on “multiple policy announcements by the White House,” which can be triggered by either economic or geopolitical events.

Navellier contends that the White House has been the “primary driver of volatility in stocks,” making short-term predictions difficult. He further asserts that this deliberate uncertainty serves the President’s strategic objectives.

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will keep on this week:

• On Monday, February’s S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI will be released at 9:45 a.m., ET.

• January’s construction spending data and February’s ISM manufacturing data will be out by 10:00 a.m., ET.

• St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at 12:35 p.m., ET.

• Also, auto sales data for February will be released today, the timing for which is yet to be announced.

• On Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams will speak at 2:20 p.m. ET, whereas, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak at an undetermined time.

• On Wednesday, February’s ADP employment data will be released at 8:15 a.m., ET.

• The S&P final U.S. services PMI for February will be out by 9:45 a.m., ET.

• January’s factory orders data and February’s ISM services data will be announced at 10:00 a.m., ET.

• Fed Beige Book will be released at 2:00 p.m., ET.

• On Thursday, initial jobless claims data for the week ended March 1 will be out by 8:30 a.m., ET.

• U.S. productivity data for the fourth quarter and U.S. trade deficit data for January will be released at 8:30 a.m., ET as well.

• January’s wholesale inventory data will be out by 10:00 a.m., ET.

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak at 3:30 p.m. and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak at 7:00 p.m.

• On Friday, February’s U.S. jobs report, unemployment rate and hourly wages data will be out by 8:30 a.m., ET.

• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak at 10:15 a.m., New York Fed President John Williams will speak again at 10:45 a.m., Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will speak at 12:20 p.m., and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at 12:30 p.m., ET.

• January’s consumer credit data will be announced at 3:00 p.m., ET.

Stocks In Focus:

• California Resources Corp. (NYSE:CRC) declined 3.38% in the premarket on Monday ahead of its earnings, which will be released before the opening bell. Analysts expect it to report earnings of 97 cents per share on revenue of $897.75 million.

• Nomad Foods Ltd. (NYSE:NOMD) advanced 2.65% as Wall Street expects it to report quarterly earnings of 38 cents per share on revenue of $796.56 million before the opening bell.

• MRC Global Inc. (NYSE:MRC) was down 0.90% ahead of its earnings, which will be released after the closing bell. Analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of 6 cents per share on revenue of $726.90 million.

• Okta Inc. (NASDAQ:OKTA) rose 1.12% as Wall Street expects it to report quarterly earnings of 74 cents per share on revenue of $669.46 million after the closing bell.

• Middlesex Water Co. (NASDAQ:MSEX) was 2.53% higher after posting better-than-expected results for its fourth quarter on Friday.

• Syros Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:SYRS) dropped 37.85% after it announced that it plans to delist from Nasdaq around March 20, after filing Form 25 with the SEC near March 10, 2025.

• Vincerx Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ:VINC) slumped 24.85% after terminating its reverse merger. It said that it will explore strategic options like out-licensing, M&A, asset sales, wind-down of operations.

• Sharplink Gaming Inc. (NASDAQ:SBET) jumped 16.19% after it acquired a 10% stake in CryptoCasino.com for $500,000, with a right of first refusal for controlling interest, aiming to enter the crypto gaming market.

Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.63% to hover around $69.33 per barrel.

The gold spot index was up by 0.37% to $2,869.27 per ounce. Its last record high was at $2,956.37 per ounce. The Dollar Index was down 0.55% at the 107.018 level.

Asian markets were mixed on Monday as India's S&P BSE Sensex, China's CSI 300, and South Korea's Kospi index declined. Whereas, Japan's Nikkei 225, Australia's ASX 200, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced. European markets were mostly higher in trade.

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